Listen To This Post
Revised GDP Series with 2022–23 Base Year May Boost Growth Estimates
New Delhi: India’s economy is expected to register a robust growth rate of around 8.1 per cent in the October–December quarter (Q3FY26), reflecting strong underlying momentum and improved economic activity under the revised GDP series with the new base year of 2022–23, according to a report by the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department.
The projection comes amid ongoing revisions to national income data methodology, which are expected to alter earlier quarterly growth figures as more comprehensive, updated data is incorporated.
India had already recorded a strong 8 per cent growth rate in the first half of the current financial year ending March 2026, underlining the economy’s resilience despite global uncertainties.
Consumption Demand, Rural Recovery Drive Economic Expansion
The report highlighted that high-frequency indicators point to sustained economic strength in the third quarter. Rural consumption remains particularly robust, supported by positive trends in agriculture and non-farm sectors.
Urban consumption has also shown steady improvement, driven by festive demand and government-led fiscal stimulus measures.
“High-frequency activity data indicate resilient economic activity in Q3FY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity, while urban consumption shows a consistent uptick,” the report said.
The National Statistics Office (NSO), in its first advance estimate released last month, had projected India’s real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for FY2025–26, an improvement over 6.5 per cent recorded in FY2024–25. The second advance estimates, scheduled for release on February 27, are expected to provide clearer insights and revised figures based on updated data and the new base year.
Banking Trends Reflect Continued Credit Expansion
The report also pointed to evolving trends in the banking sector, noting that credit growth continues to outpace deposit growth. According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India, bank deposits grew by 12.5 per cent, while credit expanded by 14.6 per cent.
This widening gap has led to a higher credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio, although economists noted that such trends are not unusual during periods of strong economic expansion.
Despite these structural shifts, the overall outlook for the Indian economy remains positive, with strong domestic demand, rural recovery, and government spending acting as key growth drivers.
With GDP growth likely to cross the 8 per cent mark in the December quarter, India continues to reinforce its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world, even as methodological revisions reshape the official growth trajectory.
