The withdrawal of monsoon from extreme north-west India is unlikely to begin in the next two weeks, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in its weekly forecast on Friday.
IMD had said on Monday that though there were indications that monsoon would begin withdrawing from western parts of Rajasthan in the week ending September 18, the withdrawal would be prolonged this year as intense rains were expected after September 17.
In the weekly forecast released on Friday, IMD scientists said the withdrawal process was unlikely to begin as the Westerlies continue to be strong.
North-east and peninsular India are likely to record above normal rains in the next couple of weeks. West-central India is likely to record above normal rainfall between September 18 and 24.
Two low-pressure areas are likely to develop in the next two weeks.
The first one will develop near the northern Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast around September 13, which will move along Telangana, Vidarbha, and other parts of Maharashtra bringing in heavy rainfall.
Another low-pressure area is likely to develop over west-central Bay of Bengal around September 17 accompanying another spell of heavy rainfall.
Drastic rainfall reduction was recorded until September 11. Most parts of the country remained dry except for the southern peninsula.
Dry spell over north-west India led to maximum temperatures, as Bikaner in western Rajasthan recorded 39.4 degrees Celsius (C) on September 9.
“We have no signal of monsoon withdrawal yet,” said Anand Sharma, the IMD scientist, who presented the weekly weather forecast.
“Rainfall will increase over peninsular India over the next few days. From Kerala and Karnataka, rains will shift to AP and then to Maharashtra. Rainfall in September is likely to range between normal and above normal, as the four-month-long south-west monsoon prepares for a withdrawal. A low-pressure area is likely to develop around September 13, which will bring rain and then we are expecting another low-pressure area to develop around September 17. There will be more rainfall in the week ending September 24. Rains are likely to pick up in the second half of September,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist, national weather forecasting centre.
In September, monsoon rain until 9th of the month is 29% deficient across the country.
However, rainfall was 35% excess over peninsular India during this period. On the contrary, the rainfall was 24%, 30% and 54% deficient over east and north-east India; north-west; and over central India, respectively
Monsoon rain since June 1 is 7% excess over the country.
Rainfall is 22%, 15% and 0% excess over the southern peninsula; central; east and north-east India, respectively.
But rainfall is still 11% deficient over north-west India.
Rainfall is likely to be deficient at least until September 13 in most parts of the country, including northwest and central India, before intensifying after September 17, according to the IMD’s extended range forecast.
Usually, the retreat of monsoon is supposed to begin from September 17 when rain begins reducing across the country followed by a complete withdrawal on October 15.
But this year IMD’s extended range forecast shows extensive and heavy rains along the west coast between September 11 and 24 and then until October 1 over several parts of central India.