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While the verdict is a judicial decision based on legal scrutiny of the evidence, political observers say its timing could have indirect electoral implications, particularly with urban local body elections expected in Haryana in April and the Punjab Assembly elections scheduled for 2027.

Written by: HARISH MANAV/ TheNewsDose.com

Chandigarh: The acquittal of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh by the Punjab and Haryana High Court in the murder case of journalist Ram Chander Chhatrapati on Saturday has triggered political discussions in both Haryana and Punjab, as the development comes months ahead of key elections in the region.

While the verdict is a judicial decision based on legal scrutiny of the evidence, political observers say its timing could have indirect electoral implications, particularly with urban local body elections expected in Haryana in April and the Punjab Assembly elections scheduled for 2027.

The chief of Dera Sacha Sauda commands a sizeable following in several districts of Haryana and neighbouring Punjab. His followers are considered politically influential in many constituencies, prompting political parties to monitor developments related to the Dera during election cycles closely.

In Haryana, the Dera’s influence is visible in districts such as Sirsa, Ambala, Kurukshetra and Hisar, where followers are believed to hold sway in several rural and semi-urban pockets. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has been working to consolidate support among these sections, and Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has been tasked by the party leadership with expanding the BJP’s political footprint in neighbouring Punjab as well.

Possible political impact in Punjab

The High Court verdict is also being viewed through a political lens in Punjab, where parties are slowly positioning themselves for the 2027 Assembly elections. The Dera Sacha Sauda has a significant presence in the Malwa belt, particularly in districts such as Bathinda, Mansa, Sangrur, Muktsar, Fazilka and Faridkot, as well as pockets in Barnala and Moga.

The Malwa region accounts for more than half of Punjab’s Assembly constituencies, making it electorally decisive. Analysts say that in many of these seats, the consolidated support of Dera followers can influence results, especially in closely contested elections.

Potential advantage for the BJP

Political observers say the development could indirectly favour the BJP’s political strategy, particularly in Punjab, where the party is attempting to expand its support base beyond its traditional urban vote bank.

Over the past few years, the BJP has been trying to strengthen its outreach among Dalits and economically weaker rural communities, many of whom form a sizeable section of the Dera Sacha Sauda’s followers in the Malwa region.

Although the Dera has at times extended support to various political parties, analysts believe that any consolidation of its followers could benefit the BJP, especially as the party seeks to establish itself as a stronger political player in Punjab after the breakup of its long-standing alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal.

For the BJP leadership, which is keen on building a new social coalition in Punjab politics, the goodwill or neutrality of influential socio-religious groups like the Dera Sacha Sauda could be politically significant in the run-up to the 2027 polls.

Ram Rahim remains in jail.

Despite the acquittal in the murder case, Ram Rahim will continue to remain behind bars as he is serving a 20-year prison sentence awarded in 2017 for raping two of his disciples.

Following his conviction, he has been lodged in Sunaria Jail. Over the years, his parole or furlough—legal rights available to prisoners—have repeatedly sparked political debate because several of these releases coincided with election periods in Haryana or neighbouring states.

Ahead of the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections, the Indian National Congress had even written to the Election Commission of India requesting that he not be granted parole during the enforcement of the Model Code of Conduct, arguing that his influence could affect voting behaviour. Ram Rahim was last released from Sunaria jail in January this year on a 40-day parole, marking the 15th such release since his imprisonment in August 2017 following his conviction by a special CBI court.

With the High Court’s acquittal now coming at a politically sensitive time, the development has once again brought the controversial Dera chief into the centre of political debate in both Haryana and Punjab as parties quietly assess its potential electoral impact.